Surviving the AI Singularity, financially
(This “Robot Dollars” image was created at my request by the AI crAIyon.)
From time to time I have an insight. A belated insight! I'm no prophet. But whether my insight is true or false usually I fail to invest so as to attempt to profit financially therefrom. I think the impact of AI is going to completely dwarf the changes from the technological progress we've seen these last few decades, the Internet etc. The question might not be how does one position oneself so as to be left top of the tree after this revolution. Rather the question might be how does one avoid being decaying rotten fruit afterwards.
When we're in the gutter, together with all the other now unemployable middle class beggars, when all productive capacity is in the hands of the next Elon Musk (assuming that Musk's heir is actually human intelligence) then at the very least you'll turn to me and say, "You were right, unlike that dodgy Ethereum
advice".How do I invest to protect myself against the extraordinary changes arising from AI? Or to profit from the coming singularity?
Or is my belated copycat insight false? Is real artificial general intelligence just impossible? Will there be no singularity? “Nothing to see here, move on, we're good at coping with incremental change.” No. I think that's profoundly (and almost obviously) wrong. Given that humans are just machines then only their arrogance justifies their idea that they're exceptionally and impossibly special. An overview of the argument might start at Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence
and follow on here:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai-progress-bet
That's a link to a Scott Alexander Astral Codex Ten blog post about AI progress being faster than expected.
Here's an article by me demonstrating how impressive the publicly-available AI engines are.
https://beardsell.substack.com/p/chatting-with-openais-gpt3
This is another recent Scott Alexander article, one of those which has been driving my recent enthusiasm for AI. It's about the problem of working out what a particular AI actually knows:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/elk-and-the-problem-of-truthful-ai
OK, so where do I invest?
Ethereum? Make or break imminent with v2. I'm tempted to buy again. Another discussion.